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delta

The Delta Factor

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The après-COVID party is in full swing. Travel is booming. Restaurants are full. Real estate is on a roll. Even used cars are a hot commodity. In 2021, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recently topped 35,000 and other major stock hit all-time highs.

But an uninvited guest has crashed the party. Her name is Delta, and she’s out to spoil the fun. The Delta variant of the COVID-19 virus has spread rapidly around the globe. It now accounts for the overwhelming majority of new cases in the U.S. Its high rate of transmission has brought about a new wave of infections across the country. As of August 18, the number of new Covid-19 cases had risen to levels not seen since February. Ditto hospitalizations. Although the overall caseload remains well below levels seen at the peak of the pandemic, infections have skyrocketed in a number of areas, and some states are seeing record numbers of new infections.1

Critical Reaction

The first to react to the Delta wave was, unsurprisingly, Wall Street. Stocks fell sharply on July 19 following the announcement of pandemic stats, with the DJIA tumbling over 700 points, its biggest decline in almost 10 months. Prices quickly recovered and the index went on to post new highs, although volatility has since tested those highs.

More concerning is what effects the upsurge of infections might have on the economy. Even before the rebound in COVID cases, shortages of labor, computer chips, and other goods were holding back a full recovery. A new surge could bring about renewed supply chain delays. The reopening of schools and offices could be postponed or even cancelled. Already, Apple decided to delay the planned reopening of its sprawling Cupertino campus. Many other companies have followed suit.

More importantly, restrictions are being reimposed across the country on dining, entertainment, and travel. Although lockdowns and full closures seem unlikely at this stage, the uptick in cases has brought about a return to enforced social distancing, mask mandates, and restrictions on public gatherings in many areas — all of which impacts consumer confidence and demand.

Is the Party Over?

With over 70% of U.S. adults now vaccinated,2 no one expects the economic fallout to approach last year’s recession. But the Delta wave is likely to affect different areas differently.

In some southern and Midwestern states, new vaccinations have plateaued and rates remain stubbornly low, even after a recent Delta-inspired uptick. Unless they improve further, higher infection and hospitalization rates could derail economic recoveries in those areas.

State and local restrictions will also play a role. The CDC tightened its mask guidance in late July, and many areas have reinstated some restrictions. Los Angeles County and San Francisco in California have reinstituted mask mandates and other restrictions, and towns and cities in other states have followed suit. What’s more, a growing number of government jurisdictions and businesses now require workers to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination or submit to regular testing. How all these moves will impact the economy is unknown, but they are likely to have some effect on consumer spending and confidence.

Delta’s long-term impact on the economy will ultimately depend on how widely it spreads, vaccination rates, and how effective the vaccines are in preventing serious illness. To date, the vast majority of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have been with unvaccinated people. But breakout cases are growing, and soaring infection rates could spur the emergence of ever-new variants, which could eventually become more resistant to existing vaccines and boosters. That’s a sobering thought, but one to keep in mind as you plan for an uncertain future.

 

 

 

Notes

1New York Times, Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count, July 26, 2021.

2CDC, COVID Data Tracker, August 19, 2021. Represents adults 18 or older that have received at least one dose.

This material was prepared by LPL Financial. This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that they views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

 This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.

 All company names noted herin are for educational purposes only, and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

           

ESG

The Greening of Wall Street

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The green revolution is upon us. Like it or not, the world is shifting away from fossil fuels toward renewables. Solar and wind farms are sprouting up across the globe. The major car companies are phasing out gas-powered vehicles and transitioning to hybrids or plug-ins. And the Biden administration has announced major green initiatives to support renewable energy and reduce carbon emissions.

This quantum shift has not gone unnoticed by Wall Street. In fact, investing in green businesses has taken off. A few electric car and solar companies have seen their stock prices soar as more and more investors view them as the wave of the future. Funds specializing in green and other socially responsible investments — called impact, sustainable, or ESG funds — have proliferated, allowing investors to pursue a broad-based green investing strategy. According to the Forum for Sustainable and Responsible Investment, there are now over 800 registered investment companies offering funds with ESG assets, including 718 mutual funds and 94 ETFs.1 U.S.-domiciled assets under management using ESG strategies grew from $12.0 trillion at the start of 2018 to $17.1 trillion at the start of 2020, up 42%.2

What’s Driving Growth?

Several factors are behind this dramatic growth — first and foremost, demographics. Millennials, at over 70 million strong, are coming of age and now outnumber baby boomers. This new generation is the heir to a huge asset transfer now in progress, and millennials seek to make a difference in society through the investments they make. But investor interest is also growing broadly. A recent Morningstar report found that 72% of the U.S. population expressed at least a moderate interest in sustainable investing, while a Morgan Stanley survey determined that 85% of all individual investors were interested in sustainable investing, up 10 percentage points from 2017.3

Green technologies have also become cheaper. The prices of some products have fallen dramatically, making them competitive with traditional technologies. The cost of solar power, for instance, has decreased by 80% in the past decade. That of lithium batteries is falling by 20% a year.4

What’s more, many countries are going greener. The U.S., EU, and China are setting “net-zero” emissions targets, and early this year, the Biden administration rejoined the Paris Accord, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming.

What About Returns?

Proponents of green investing have always had to combat the notion that socially conscious investments underperform the broader universe of investments. Yet there is a growing body of evidence that suggests otherwise. In fact, a number of different studies show that sustainable funds have had comparable, or even higher returns than traditional funds. For 2020, analyses by Morningstar and Morgan Stanley indicate that ESG funds comfortably outperformed their peers. A longer-term study of ESG fund performance from 2004 to 2018 by Morgan Stanley indicated there is “no financial trade-off in the returns of sustainable funds compared to traditional funds, and they demonstrate lower downside risk.”5

Tips for Green Investing

Investing with a conscience is not that different from investing just for profit. It involves another layer of thinking and analysis, but otherwise calls for the same scrutiny that should be applied to traditional investing.

  1. Define your objectives. Being ‘socially responsible’ is a broad mandate. Different funds, companies, and strategies may stress different objectives. Some may focus on environmental factors, some on social or corporate governance. And some may be very specific. So before you choose which best suits your goals, make sure you identify what those goals are.
  2. Strike a balance. Although, in the aggregate, ESG funds have kept pace with the broader market, many individual funds or stocks have not. When researching candidates, you will want to strike a balance between performance and social objectives, and set limits as to how far you are willing to compromise on one objective to meet the other.
  3. Diversify. Just like with a traditional portfolio, green investors should also diversify their portfolios by risk and asset class, targeting an asset allocation that is in keeping with their investing time horizon and appetite for risk. ESG funds can now be found in all major asset classes, permitting investors to diversify while pursuing social causes.
  4. Work with a professional. There are thousands of companies and funds that support green causes. Choosing among them while also adhering to an investment strategy that suits your non-social goals can be complex, so you may want to work with your financial professional to assure that your choices address your unique circumstances and needs.

Notes

1Source: US/SIF, Sustainable Investing Basics, retrieved June 3, 2021.

2Source: US/SIF, 2020 Report on US Sustainable and Impact Investing Trends, November 2020.

3Source: CNBC, ‘Sustainable investing’ is surging, accounting for 33% of total U.S. assets under management, December 21, 2020.

4Source: The Economist, The Green Meme, May 20, 2021.

5Source: US/SIF, Financial Performance With Sustainable Investing, retrieved June 7, 2021.

 

Socially Responsible Investing (SRI)/Environmental Social Governance (ESG) investing has certain risks based on the fact that the criteria exclude securities of certain issuers for non-financial reasons and , therefore, investors may forgo some market opportunities and the universe of investments available will be smaller.

 

An investment in Exchange Traded Funds (ETF), structured as a mutual fund or unit investment trust, involves the risk of losing money and should be considered as part of an overall program, not a complete investment program. Amounts invested in mutual funds and ETFs are subject to fluctuations in value and market risk. Shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.                       

                                                                                                                                                    

This material was prepared by LPL Financial. This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that they views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

 

This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.

Managing your finances during COVID

Managing Finances during COVID19

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Smart Financial Strategies for Unexpected Events

A once-in-a-lifetime event such as the coronavirus pandemic forces us to reassess many things we may have taken for granted. Most of us take our personal good health for granted. Many of us assume we will always get by financially, that we will always be able to earn money in some way, and that, in a worst-case-scenario, the government will be there to step in and help.

But assumptions are always there to be challenged. And adverse situations always should teach us some lessons. What lessons can we take away from the current crisis that will help us better prepare for an event that appears suddenly and upends many of our day-to-day activities? Specifically, what steps should we take to ensure that we will have enough money set aside to see us through another crisis? What can we do going forward so that we will be able to pay our bills and handle unforeseen expenses if we lose our jobs? Why is it a good idea to limit our debt burden, and how can we achieve this goal?

Here are some ideas that could jump-start your thinking.

Spend Less Than You Earn

It’s easier said than done. But it is one of the most effective ways of building up your savings and your personal wealth. You may have to reevaluate what you consider important — especially if shopping has always been enjoyable for you. You can still shop, just not as often and only for items that you or your family members truly need.

Set yourself a goal of setting a percentage of your pay aside for savings. If need be, start small so you don’t get discouraged. Then, increase the percentage you save after a few months.

Look for Ways to Boost Savings

Now that you have decided to spend less than you earn, you can start to look seriously at ways to increase your savings. For example, you may be able to find some extra cash by shopping around for better rates on your utilities, cell phone service, and auto or home insurance. If your credit score is good, you may be able to find a credit card with a lower interest rate than you currently pay. And, if you can afford the closing costs, refinancing your mortgage could potentially unlock some solid savings.

If you do not have a budget, now is the time to create one. A budget can help most people organize and control their spending. If you track your spending for a few months, you can use that information to cut back on impulse buying and spending on nonessential items and redirect that money to savings and investments.

Be sure to direct some of that money to your own emergency fund. An emergency fund should be used to pay for unexpected, large expenses so you don’t have to borrow the money. Financial experts say that, ideally, your emergency fund should be able to cover six months of living expenses — including mortgage and auto payments. It sounds like a lot to save, but you may be surprised how much you can save when you focus on that goal.

Take Control of Your Debt

Debt is like savings in reverse. When you are in debt, you keep paying interest on goods and services that you probably consumed two or three years ago. If you carry consumer debt, now is the time to get a handle on that situation. You are not in a good place if:

  • Your credit card balance is growing
  • You are paying only a minimum on your bills
  • You are missing payments or paying late.

For every loan and credit card you carry, find out how much you owe, the interest rate, and the payment schedule. You can use this information to figure how much money you can afford to put toward paying down your debt and how long it will take. These strategies can help:

  • Pay off the card with the highest interest rate first;
  • Transfer your balance to a card with a lower interest rate; and/or
  • Pay more than the minimum amount. Paying more than the minimum is critically important since the less you pay, the greater the interest will be and the longer it will take to pay off your balance.

Every few months, check your expenses to see if you can find other funds to use to reduce your debt. If possible, consider part-time work and use what you earn to pay off your debts. In the meantime, do not take on additional debt. Try using cash (or your debit card) instead of credit for as many transactions as possible.

Protect Your Earning Power

If you are a working parent, your family’s financial well-being is tied closely to your ability to make a living. If you were to have an accident or fall ill, your disability could destabilize your finances. If you do not have a private disability income insurance policy, consider getting one. The payments from the policy would help pay for critical everyday expenses when your disability prevents you from working and collecting a salary. Before you purchase insurance, though, make sure you understand the policy’s definition of disability and all the other policy terms.

 

You also may want to name someone you trust to make financial and health care decisions if you become unable to make them for yourself. Talk to your attorney to learn more about the options available in your state. And you might consider setting up a living trust that allows the trustee of the trust to handle your financial affairs if you cannot.

Review Your Investing Strategy

Finally, remember that risk is a given in investing. Some investments carry a higher risk of loss than others. However, riskier investments typically offer higher potential returns than more conservative alternatives. When you invest you have to decide how much investment risk you can comfortably handle while seeking higher returns, and choose your investments accordingly. It helps to review your investing approach and your tolerance for possible investment losses at least once a year.

Facing the Future

Every crisis is different. However, those who think ahead and have some strategies in place to deal with the financial aspects of a crisis are potentially more likely to do better than those who do not plan.

 

This material was prepared by LPL Financial.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing.

The cost and availability of Life Insurance depend on many factors such as age, health, and amount of insurance purchased. In addition to premiums, there are contract limitations, fees, exclusions, reductions of benefits, and charges associated with policy. And if a policy is surrendered prematurely, there may be surrender charges and income tax implications. Any guarantees are contingent upon the claims-paying ability of the issuing company.

timing the market

Thinking of Timing the Market?

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Thinking of Timing the Market?

Volatility is back and so is the idea of timing the market. The sustained rally that produced 30%+ gains in the S&P 500 in 2019 and continued into 2020 came to an abrupt halt in late February, when fears of the new coronavirus epidemic and its effects on the economy swept Wall Street and beyond. Markets across the globe plummeted, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped over 1,000 points in one day. More drops followed, and volatility has ensued as investors try to grapple with the spreading epidemic and its potential impact on trade, travel, and the global economy.

The Futility of Market Timing

The situation presents a tempting scenario for timing the market — those who try to predict when stock prices will rise and fall. Should you sell before it gets worse? Should you buy while prices are down? What about parking your money in bonds until the epidemic runs its course?

While timing your purchases and sales to capitalize on the market’s ups and downs may seem to make sense in theory, it’s extremely difficult to pull off successfully. Typically, you can’t accurately pinpoint a market high or low point until after it has occurred. If you move your money out of stocks during a low period, you might not move your money back in time. By the time you realize stocks are on an upswing, it may be too late to take advantage of gains.

In fact, history has shown that trying to time the market’s ups and down is a loser’s game. Even the experts, with their analytical prowess and sophisticated computer models, cannot manage to consistently beat the market. A landmark study by CXO Advisory Group tracked more than 4,500 forecasts by 28 self-described market timers between 2000 and 2012. Only 10 were able to accurately forecast equity returns (as measured by the S&P 500) over 50% of the time, and none were able to predict accurately enough to outperform the market.1 Nobel Laureate William Sharpe calculated a market timer would have to be correct 74% of the time — on both the market decline and recovery — to outperform another investor who just lets their money sit in a passive portfolio of comparable risk.1

Dealing with crises such as the coronavirus epidemic requires patience and a level head. Here are some suggestions to help you weather the storm:

Don’t panic. Selling into a plunging market is often a sure way to lock in a loss. Talk with a financial advisor before you act. He or she can help you separate emotionally driven decisions from those based on your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. Researchers in the field of behavioral finance have found that emotions often lead investors to read too much into recent events even though those events may not reflect long-term realities. With the aid of a financial professional, you can sort through these distinctions, and you’ll likely find that if your investment strategy made sense before the crisis, it will still make sense afterward.

Consider Time in Market Instead. Clearly, time can be a better ally than timing. Instead of trying to time the market, you may be better off with a well-coordinated investment strategy based on your personal risk tolerance and time frame. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, the stock market has always recovered from every downturn.

So think twice before trying to time the market’s dips and corrections, and work with your financial advisor to ensure that the investments you select are in keeping with your goals.

Source/Disclaimer:

1Source: Index Fund Advisors, Inc. (IFA.com), 2014. Based on a study by CXO Advisory, © CXO Advisory Group LLC.

 

 

How can I get started planning my finances

Building a Solid Financial Foundation

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Building a Solid Financial Foundation

When the markets and the economy are behaving badly, as they tend to do from time to time, it’s easy to feel helpless. But creating a solid financial foundation can help you gain control of your investments and possibly avoid mistakes that can sabotage your portfolio.

Your Net Worth — A Place to Start

Having a current picture of your finances is an important first step in building a solid foundation. By determining your net worth at the same time every year, you’ll know what sort of financial shape you’re in and whether you’re making progress toward your goals. To find your net worth, list all of your assets, including bank and investment accounts, real estate, retirement plans, life insurance, business interests, etc. Then subtract your liabilities, such as your mortgage, credit card debt, loans, etc. The amount that’s left is your net worth. If you don’t like the number, look for ways to either decrease your debts or increase your assets.

Lost Without Them

Setting specific goals can help you focus your investing efforts. Prioritize the goals you’ve set according to their importance and your time frame for needing the money. Keep in mind that the goals you have now will probably change over time, so be flexible. Revisit your goals periodically and revise them when necessary.

Make It Personal

You can’t control what happens in the economy, but you can control your own behavior. Instead of worrying about whether the market is up or down or which investments will be hit hardest by a decline, think about the things you can do that could make a difference. Investing money on a regular basis or adjusting your portfolio’s asset allocation are steps that can help put you in control.1

Good Behavior

Think about creating a written investment statement that describes your risk tolerance, rebalancing schedule, and reasons for selling an investment.2 Having guidelines to follow can keep you from making mistakes that might thwart your plans. You might also want to review your own financial track record. Tax returns and brokerage statements can tell you a lot about your past successes and failures. Keep in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

 

1Asset allocation and dollar-cost averaging do not assure a profit or protect against a loss. Dollar-cost averaging involves regular, periodic investments in securities regardless of price levels. You should consider your financial ability to continue purchasing shares though periods of high and low prices.

2Consider the tax consequences when selling investment shares. Rebalancing strategies may involve tax consequences, especially for non-tax-deferred accounts.

 

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